Polish political polls and scandals--and what's in store

In light of a wave of scandals, highly negative press on an EU level and ongoing teacher’s strikes on a national level, the Polish man on the street (or just the man on the street in Poland) just might think that the Law-and-Justice (PiS) are numbered.

For indeed the scandals have been many since just before the beginning of the year. Tape scandals, financial regulator scandals, “can you believe the senator said that” scandals and more. Perhaps nothing yet ranks on the scale, number and financial damages caused by the plethora of scandals under the previous Civic Platform (PO) government, but this is hardly the momentum that any party would seek prior to coming parliamentary elections.

Yet, according to the polls, it would seem that PiS has little to fear. If votes were cast today, PiS would take some 39 percent of the vote, with PO coming in at a very distant 24 percent, according to research counted by the tabloid daily Super Express.

Fine, Super Express does not quite fit the image of a typical paper of record. But a glance at a similar poll, ordered by the daily Rzeczpospolita, also slates PiS at the 39 percent level, with PO coming in at a paltry 21.1 percent. The new Wiosna Party led by Robert Biedron currently has 7 percent support.

Then you have the laggards, with the Polish People’s Party (PSL) at 5.8 percent; the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) taking 5 percent and Kukiz ’15 and KORWiN both supposedly still getting 3.5 percent of the vote.

Which would lead even the most ardent PiS opponent to believe that the party is sitting pretty. And perhaps it is. Such a high level support (with Kukiz ’15 still a likely backer) would seem to indicate that the dynasty is never ending.

Could be. But two factors (or make that four) are still at work here: the past decades of Polish politics have proven that first, polls in Poland are not to be believed. This has much to do with how people are polled, who is not polled (polls are very large city and mobile-phone centric and questions placed during polls are often lead-ins) and finally who is paying for the polls. Time and time again, the polls (and the press) have been wrong.

Second, scandals have undone Polish political parties again and again and again. Criticize Polish voters if you like, but party lines are crossed when scandals hit a fever pitch. So learned the SLD, and PiS, and PO, with the latter ousted in what may have been the largest protest vote since the fall of the wall.

Third, we get to the scandals themselves. Various issues, such as the KNF regulator scandal, the Central Bank nepotism scandal and even the Srebna tape scandal can be and have been weathered. So far. Yet a new sex scandal involving (allegedly) thousands of hours of secret service tapes in brothels run by Ukrainian organized crime members (who are now naturalized Poles) is a new frontier. Allegedly, on the tapes are politicians, local officials, cops—literally everyone and there dog, and under-aged/trafficked prostitutes are involved.

Allegedly.

The issue is that nobody seems to actually have the tapes, or at least know where they are—including a secret service whistleblower. A second issue is that investigations by prosecutors and rulings by judges have been ruled classified. A third issue is nobody knows why. And a fourth issue is that there must be something there, as the criminals and pimps involved have been (allegedly) convicted.

Poland has largely avoided sex scandals simply because hardly anyone will report them. Yet times are changing with long-term Senator Stefan N., 71,(formerly PO, now with PSL-UED) having been charged the first week of April with taking bribes in the form of sexual favors.

And considering that “tapes” in Poland have a penchant for surfacing, the larger sex-prostitution scandal may just be beginning.

But finally comes the fourth factor: the ongoing teachers strike. This is more dangerous to PiS than many assume. Polish teachers, long underpaid (despite statements by the ruling party), have had enough. Yet socialist policies, including the infamous 500 plus program that has funded families beginning with every second child, have helped drain the budget. So across Poland kids are home, often en masse.

Why is this a political danger? Because it has happened before. Moves to re-organize schools under PO quietly enraged parents of even PO voters, and late blips in polls prior to both the presidential election that cost PO President Bronislaw Komorowski his job, not to mention a parliamentary vote that saw PO booted into exile, indicate that messing with schools can cost more than the average political pundit might think.

Finally, in truth, the above is only a short summary of PiS problems. Bad to horrendous PR, battles with the EU, PiS political infighting and questions about the ability of founder Jaroslaw Kaczynski to remain spry and cunning will all become additional factors over the coming months.

As the saying goes, it’s easier to get to the top than it is to stay on top. Say what you want, PiS has definitely managed to stay on top for longer than many anticipated, but the true battles are only just beginning.

 

Photo credit: Lewis J. Selznick Enterprises / Select Pictures Corporation [Public domain]